EUR/USD

Chart 1- long term perspective

On chart MACD very precisely confirmed price reverse after previous lows. Currently MACD also suggest price growth. We can observe increasing momentum on Stochastic and RSI. RSI, actually cross 50% level, and down trend on RSI. Support level on the chart is also important historically- previously at this level (around 1.2620) sentiments shifts took place. Marked local support, has also historical significance, the same like market resistance (1.42296) which could be our aggressive price objective.

 

Chart 2- short/medium-term perspective, and price target

  • MACD confirmed local low, as an buying signal
  • Analytics used Fibonacci, to determine price objective, and stop loss
    • Take profit at 1.38061 at Fibonacci 1.382 level, and previous local resistance
    • Stop loss at 1.30558, 5 pips below Fibonacci 50 level and previous local support.
    • Fibonacci target of 161.8 is below significant historical high at 1.42296, analytic decide to abstain from trade above 1.382 Fibonacci level if there will be no other significant patterns

Trade recommendation

Action Price Comment
Buy 1.3233 Current price level
Stop-loss 1.30558 178.8 Maximum risk
Take-profits 1.38060 571 Potential profit

Risk-Reward ratio= 3:1

 

Gold

Chart 1- long term perspective

Gold is in longest bullish trend from more than decade. Strong bullish trend in last 4 years has been presented on graph. During this period, there was short-term corrections, which we can see as a down trends 6-10 weeks, witch price fall, at the same angle, which anticipated by loss in momentum (Stochastic 10,6,6 and RSI 9) and double rise of RSI into oversold zone. In last 8 months, price change behaviour and fallen under different angle and stop on support around 1530USD/ounce. Even now, fundamentals are bullish and major trend has not been broken. Important to notice is also, lack of new highs, and strong resistance, around 1800 USD/ounce.

 

Chart 2- medium-term perspective

The slow currently stochastic gives signal to buy, which previously was successful indication of growth. The price touched the significant price level three days ago and reverse, which confirm signal from Stochastic indicator. Moreover this new pivot point is close to long term trend line, which was showed on previous chart.

Chart 3- short perspective, and price target

  • RSI first time in this year drop to oversold zone (25). Buy signal after second oversold confirmation (also widely use 30 RSI line show more significant oversold signal)
  • Investor use Fibonacci levels to support his findings: classical A,B,C levels has been confirmed by last 3 days candles. Price pull back from 38.2-50.0 zone
  • Investor decide to buy now at 1653.73, with a stop loss between Fibonacci level 23.6 and 38.2 at 1610 and point where line of stop loss level cut long term trend line below pivot point. This is also close to big number (1600), and below important price level shown on chart 2.
  • Initial take profit (T/P on chart) at 1790 (just below strong resistance level) where investor decided to sell 75% and sell the other 25% on aggressive target at 1890 (Fibonacci 1.382).

Trade recommendation

Action Price Comment
Buy 1.3233 Current price level
Stop-loss 1.30558 178.8 Maximum risk
Take-profits 1.38060 571 Potential profit

Risk-Reward ratio= 3:1

S&P 500

Chart 1- long term perspective

Last 4 years has ben characterized by aggressive growth after low in 664 points in 6.03.2009 after 2007/2008 financial crisis. Currently there is an uptrend line from last September, simple moving average SMA10 is above it’s slower cousin SMA50 during actual trend volume increasing with price. On 13th March 2012, S&P500 broke long term resistance line from two years. Analysis of short-term cycles, by using Elliot Waves, show that we are in last growth wave, which could be shorter than wave 2-3, but should end significantly higher than actual price level, and indicates positive signal for our medium-term investing purpose.

Chart 2- medium-term perspective

SMA 5 weeks cross above SMA20 weeks in October, and stays above since now. breakup above 1374.27 resistances on 13th March 2012. Fibonacci range has been determined between support at 1067 points and Octobers resistance, and shows that price achieve initial target of 1.382. Significance of Fibonacci levels is confirmed by local supports which are at most common used 23.6 and 61.8 levels. Price move directly to next Fibonacci target is at 161.8 which is above psychological level of 1400, and above 4 years high (at 1426 points). Heikin Ashi candlestick has been used to show price direction which shows strong and healthy trend.

 

Chart 3- short term perspective, and price target

  • Price tested trend at 7 March, and pull back after Hammer formation. Price grown above previous pick from 2.05.2011, and increased volume show strength of buying site
  • Growing momentum and RSI, above 50%. MACD shows buy signal. Also SMA 5 (pink) cross above SMA20 (green)
  • Buy now at 1398 (Near opportunity to increase size of trade, after candlestick pattern, and stochastic confirmation above 1400 points- pyramid trading/ building up position)
  • Stop loss at 1365- local support line, and price below previous high.
  • Take Profit 1495 which is reasonable, after comparison of Elliot Waves sizes and below psychological level (bignumber-1500)

 

Trade recommendation

Action

Price

Comment

 Buy US S&P 500  1398  This is the current price today 16-Mar-2012
 Stop loss  1365  33 maximum risk
 Profit initial target  1495  97 potential profit

Risk-Reward ratio for initial target =1:3

Most of us realize the emergence of 2007 financial crisis and could explain it in details. The problem is if our friends asking about explanation, and we simply don’t want to spend whole afternoon on explanation of how crisis has begun. It is even harder if our listener, have no idea how finance works. If we will start from explaining how mortgage market, frozen credit market, subprime mortgage,  collateralized debt obligation, CDF ext. works, it’s might turn out that our listener has lost he’s interest already. So how to do it in simply way, without spending a lot of time and sending them back to books? On the same question was trying to find an answer Interaction & Media Designer- Jonathan Jarvis. He use his financial knowledge and IT skills to “quickly supply the essence of the situation to those unfamiliar and uninitiated” (more: jonathanjarvis.com). And in my opinion, he done that very best. Check it out:

 

Why investing?

Did you ever think, why you chose investing? I don’t mean the simple answer: money issue. This topic requires deeper reflection, and I think that the outcome of this reflection will be not only interesting but also useful and could bring the changes in our investing strategies.

 

The fastest and easiest way to begin our deliberations is to list the advantages of investing in financial instruments. It’s difficult to make a full list, because of wide differentiation of financial products on the market, but let me gather common features of most of them:

  • Independency
  • Flexibility
  • Liquidity
  • Progress
  • Available tool
  • Accessibility
  • Equal access to information’s*

 

Independency
First of all, in today’s market, you don’t need to rely on a broker or analysts. Most information’s are available on internet, and could be accessed for free, or small fees (I choose the payable websites, because they help me save much time. But I write about it later).
Dependent on your expectations to the market and economics changes, you can choose from wide range of products, this with meet your expectations best. If you are sure, that expected scenario will happen you almost always can chose financial products, will allow you to make a profit, if you expectation will come true.

 

Flexibility
You can easily find a time for investing in your schedule (mostly markets are open 8 hours pd. in 5 days a week or even 24 hours per day in 5 days a week ). Of course if you investing in short term that will be more demanding than long term investment.
You don’t need to even have an access to computer to be able to make investment decisions. The numbers of mobile platforms for portfolio analysis, and investing is rapidly growing. Examples of solid platform with do not lags behind computer platforms are: Saxo Bank trader, TD Waterhouse Trading Account Plus, Halifax Share Dealing, XT- Brokers.

 
Liquidity
The popular markets, have big advantage here, compare to small and developing markets. In best exchanges or OCT’s you are able to almost always sell your assets immediately, and your stop-loss will close your positions almost always in the prescribed level.

 

Progress
There is very hard to find some other field than investing field, with have similar or greater number of publications, and available information’s. You can learn almost anything you want, fast and cheap. Thanks to this advantage, you can become an expert. But regardless of what do you know, your investing results should speak for you. In my life I meet many dodgers with were talking like mad! In reality no one would like to show they investing results on real account. In this case, be always careful. You can more likely loss, than learn anything from this kind of people.

 

Available tools
There is no other field with has so many useful tools. E.g. Trading Platforms, Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Expert Advisors, Indicators, Signals subscriptions, daily analysis, alerts, hedging techniques etc. Most professionals say that you need to think more, than most of this “boosters”. Of course it’s almost impossible to make any analysis without even some of mentioned above tools, but we need to remember that sophistication has stopped many victories.

 
Accessibility
The lowest required amount to beginning investments, what I hear about is 20£. This give you access to Forex platform with leverage 100:1 and micro lots. Today everybody who want to invest is able to do it. Unfortunately many who shouldn’t has do it (I hope they have still some savings on they pension plan).

 
Equal access to information’s*
In era of “cheap trading”, not only lower requirements make investments available. In my opinion more important is access to information’s. We can easily find macro and micro data from many places around the world. I put the star* in that point, because there is many abnormalities in investment world. You can read about high frequency trading, predator trading, or insider trading, if you wondering what I would like to say here.

 

 

Because of the above facts, I personally believe that we, as an investors, have opportunities of whose colleagues in other industries can only dream. This obviously increases the competition, and we need to spend a lot of time, and go very deep to beat the market year after year. Most scientists say it is impossible to beat the market, and the exceptions prove the rule. But please remember that there are many markets available for you :)